Instances - the result of processes on a platform

I’m trying out a new word: Instances. Instances are the results of processes that take place on platforms: Unique solutions that fit a particular context. This is how healthcare, mobility, education or even physical stuff like furniture will be offered tomorrow.

Industrial age was about mass production – everyone got the same basic functionality, and that was a great improvement. Then came more choice and customization. To compete in the market place, companies would try to make products and service that matched the individual customer’s life style. The next step to create value for customers is contextualization; offering users the right set of services and products at the right time and place.

This requires a great deal of flexibility. We’re different, we move around, our situations and needs change – and so do the solutions that are right for our context.

As customers we want to choose from the global menu, but we want a configuration that is uniquely customized for this moment.

In principle, the solution we want is an instance – one possible combination of a large number of elements.

This is natural in the digital world. Make a Google search and what comes up on your screen depends on who you are, where you are, what you’ve done previously, the mails you’ve sent etc. Based on this very detailed information you will receive one instance of a search. If you send the same query at other times, from other locations, you may get a different result. Likewise with services like Facebook or Amazon. They have hundreds of millions of users, yet every person sees a different version.

In the physical world we will also see solutions as instances. For mobility our needs change: Are you in a hurry, are you travelling with others, do you have luggage, is it raining, what types of transportation are available… Ideally, we want a combination, which takes all of this into account to offer the best solution at the least cost.

Likewise for healthcare or education. We change, and the companies that can adapt along with us, can deliver more value, and will be the most attractive.

Physical objects will become instances too. 3D printing and other flexible manufacturing will make it cost-efficient to modify every object to fit the user’s context and wishes. Objects that are based on a digital description are fluid. They can be remixed and reconfigured, and in a sense, the object is really a set of potential designs – one of which the user chooses to instantiate by printing it.

In a circular economy, where all resources are re-used, all objects would basically be instances of raw materials, assembled momentarily for a particular purpose. It’s natural.

Instances will typically not be created by one company. Rather, they will be co-created by a much wider set of stakeholders than most of the solutions we use today. In many cases, a significant part of the value may be contributed by communities or users them selves.

Instances are the results of processes that take place on platforms. The hardware, the service, the data, knowledge and content which is combined in an instance will shift, but the platform, where all of the components are assembled, is likely to be constant. The individual parts may be commodities, but the added value for users emerges as the platform matches providers and needs, orchestrating the interactions and qualifying them with increasingly detailed data.

This makes the platform a central and powerful player in a more connected and collaboratory economy.

CEO of GE Healthcare discusses the need for frugal innovation

The CEO of GE division for healthcare, John Dineen, gave a very interesting keynote speech at the recent World Innovation Summit for Healthcare in Qatar. You can see the videorecording at the WISH website.

Among his observations were that GE traditionally has focused on taking their devices to the next level technically. But now they need to be as concerned about bringing costs down and making their products accessable in emerging markets. The coming years will be about Quality, cost and access, Dineen said. He also said that GE needs to be both clinically and economically relevant.

An example of a lower cost product from GE is a new orthopaedic MR scanner, which only scans limbs, so patients are not completely inserted in the scanner. It’s much more compact, less intimidating to the patients, and the price is $500.000 – rather than $2 million for a full blown MR scanner.

Another example is the smartphone sized V-scan, a battery driven, handheld and extremely easy to operate scanner, which sells for around 8.000 euros. It’s sold to doctors that do house calls in Japan, as well as to midwives working in African villages.

John Dineen observed, that selling to emerging markets means that GE needs to change their business model from simply selling devices, to taking part in creating an entire local eco-system of trained personal, maintenance, electrical charging etc.

China: Getting old before they get rich

Getting old before they get rich, is a sentence that’s popping up a lot about China. If you want a quick overview of just how dramatic and fast the ageing of the Chinese population is, this article in the Economist, ”China’s Achilles heel” is a good place to start.

Among the facts are:

Shanghai is believed to have the lowest fertility rate in the world, just 0,6 in 2010 – way below the 2,1 rate which is necessary to keep the population number stable.

A fast rise in lifetime combined with rapid urbanization and the one-child policy means, that the number of old people is growing, and the number of young is dropping much faster than in the west. By 2020 it is expected that a third of Shanghais population will be over 60 years old.

The 4-2-1 families of four grandparents, a couple and their only child has become the norm, and obviously this will become a considerable burden on the lone child soon.

China is not prepared.  The systems of pensions and healthcare cover only a fraction of the population. Just adapting the physical infrastructure to accommodate elderly is a huge task. 

How this plays out at the personal level is well illustrated by this BBC program”Assignment: Too old to get rich” – which portrays how elderly in Shanghai get by. Some are faced with climbing the stairs to the 8th floor because there is no elevator; some are ashamed because their spouse is becoming demented in a culture that often sees dementia as a form of mental illness. Others join the crowds of elderly in IKEAs cafeteria, sipping coffee and hoping to meet a companion.

One obvious conclusion: there is vast potential for Danish companies to deliver expertise on how to support an ageing society. But the solutions need to be really cheap.

When I'm 80 we'll all be old

I'm preparing for a stint as a moderator at a conference about the future of health care, arranged by the Danish Engineering society. It's amazing to read just how dramatic the aging of the Danish population will be, in our own life time.
With some luck, I'll be 80 years old in 2041. By then, 8% of the Danish population will be 80 or above. Today the figure is only 4%.
19% of the population will be above 70 years in 2040.

Another stat: By 2020 - in less than 10 years - there will be 2 million Danes with chronic diseases - out of a total population of 5,5 mio.

Source: IDA og Det Nationale forskningscenter for Velfærd.